Commentary & Analysis
Tzvi Gottlieb
Commentator on the Middle East, US-Israel relations and technology, with a track record of calling major events on his platforms before they happened.
25 years of experience in government, journalism and law. Licensed attorney, former director of communications for the Israeli government, served as an Arab affairs correspondent for IDF Radio, managed several political campaigns, and published in the Daily Beast, Haaretz, Ynet and others.
Predictions
Publicly dated calls, linked to the original pieces.
Trump’s path to the nomination and presidency
Trump would take the Republican nomination and had a strong chance of winning the presidency. Written before the primaries were decided.
Why Harris would not beat Trump
Kamala Harris would not beat Trump. Written before she was the nominee.
Trump, Netanyahu and action against Iran
Trump’s public break with Netanyahu was coordinated theater, and it would end in military action against Iran. Israel and the US struck Iran in June 2025.
Other predictions11
Israel would not eliminate Hamas, and continued fighting would not free the hostages.
Netanyahu would not be able to secure a hostage deal. A deal came in October 2025, under US pressure rather than through his own negotiation.
Netanyahu would not go anywhere, despite expectations of early elections.
Emigration of high-tech workers, doctors and academics would accelerate. A 2026 Israel Tax Authority study reported departures up about 50% since COVID.
Netanyahu would move toward elections. The 2025 Iran war intervened.
Trump’s posture enabled a futile attack on Iran, and the strike would not achieve its stated aims.
Israel and the US had not destroyed Iran’s nuclear program, and Iran could acquire warheads from other states.
Israel would not conquer Gaza, whatever the government announced.
The Gulf states would be asked to fund the cost of the Iran campaign. Trump later said publicly that they should reimburse the US.
The 60-day US-Iran understanding was a holding mechanism, not an end to the conflict.
The dispute over the Second Authority Council was not a constitutional crisis, because the High Court had ruled that the council could act.
